Watch Calendar

Broadcom's results, reported after the close on September 4, 2026, were nowhere near expectations, and Niles expects the stock to fall the next day unless the conference call changes things.

Dan Niles: Why Cash Makes Sense, Even as the AI Boom Continues

During opex week, sell big up moves and buy big down moves, and play for front-end implied vol compression until Wednesday or Thursday (Sept 16-17, 2026).

Cem Karsan on Why Opex Week Is the Best Time to Sell Volatility

With a 25bp hike priced for the Fed decision on 2026-09-16, the real shock would be no hike, which would be dovish and bullish, a convex 'pennies on the dollar' bet in Karsan's view.

Cem Karsan on Why Opex Week Is the Best Time to Sell Volatility

Karsan calls the 2026-09-16 Fed meeting one of the most important ever and says the market is sleeping on it; he thinks Warsh will try to look independent but will do what the administration wants.

Cem Karsan on Why Opex Week Is the Best Time to Sell Volatility

Butler expects the Sept 16 Fed decision to be a bigger event than people think: skipping a priced-in hike would make markets rip, while a surprise 50bp hike would make them tank.

Cem Karsan on Why Opex Week Is the Best Time to Sell Volatility

Butler bought a 50-point-wide SPX butterfly for $500 expiring on Fed decision day, Sept 16, 2026, as a downside hedge.

Cem Karsan on Why Opex Week Is the Best Time to Sell Volatility

Chandler added a put butterfly in the Sept 16, 2026 expiration, the day of the Fed meeting.

Cem Karsan on Why Opex Week Is the Best Time to Sell Volatility

Niles expects the Fed under Chair Warsh to raise rates at the September 16, 2026 meeting rather than on October 28, which falls just days before the November 3 midterms.

Dan Niles: Why Cash Makes Sense, Even as the AI Boom Continues

Near term the US equity market is chop with a buyable dip, and Karsan expects new all-time highs before the midterms, so be careful holding shorts into opex and the Fed meeting.

Cem Karsan on Why Opex Week Is the Best Time to Sell Volatility

Niles believes Iran will keep the Strait of Hormuz a problem until at least the November 3, 2026 midterms, to hurt the Republicans at the polls.

Dan Niles: Why Cash Makes Sense, Even as the AI Boom Continues

Niles would shelter in cash, held in money market funds, from now through the early November 2026 midterms, instead of stocks or bonds.

Dan Niles: Why Cash Makes Sense, Even as the AI Boom Continues

From late July to November 9 in US midterm years, the market's median peak-to-trough drop has been 10%, double the 5% in other years, so Niles sees an unusually risky stretch into the 2026 midterms.

Dan Niles: Why Cash Makes Sense, Even as the AI Boom Continues